The Football League Betting Column

Ignore the balance sheets, back The Bantams

horsfallg — Sun, 26 Jun 2011 07:38:32 +0000

Relegation markets aren’t quite the same these days as the strategy for finding potential candidates often owes more to looking at a clubs balance sheet rather than previous season’s form. Trying to predict if the administrators are knocking at the door meaning the club incur a deduction in points is all part of game although it’s worth noting that 11 teams have received some sort of points penalty in League Two over the last 10 seasons with only 3 being relegated. Of those three only Luton in 08/09 would have maintained league status were it not for the penalty of 30 points, Boston in 06/07 missed out on survival by 12pts following a 10pt penalty while Cambridge Utd finished 14pts adrift in 04/05 after being deducted 10pts.

Stockport last season joined Luton in becoming the second team in 3 years to suffer consecutive relegations, and while Plymouth look most at risk of joining that exclusive club next season the club is taking steps to stabilise this Summer and look more likely to fight their battles at the top of the division. Of the 19 teams relegated since 01/02, 2 spent the previous season in League One, 4 finished in the top half while 13 finished in the bottom 12, that’s a decent enough trend for me to start focussing attention on last season’s bottom half.

One noticeable trend amongst struggling sides has been the poor away form leading up to their relegation campaigns. Of those 19 teams losing league status, only 2 lost less than 10 away games the previous season while 14 of the 19 picked up 25pts or less on their travels the season before. At the risk of stating the obvious this isn’t quite as simple as it sounds, Boston still only managed 21 points away from home on their way to finishing 11th in 05/06, while York amassed just 24 points when finishing 10th in 03/04, both teams were relegated the following season. Poor away form is just one factor of course but being competitive away from home is what has kept annual relegation favourites Macclesfield (30pts last season), Cheltenham (28) and Hereford (30) out of trouble in the past few seasons.

Barnet look the most obvious candidates this year, picking up just 19 points away from home and avoiding the drop on the final day of last season thanks to a win against Vale. The Bees played under 4 managers last term, with Giuliano Grazioli overseeing just 2 defeats in the last 8 games to see the season out. Lawrie Sanchez influenced much of that run and takes the reigns (with Grazioli supporting) on a permanent basis this season, 14 goal Izale Mcleod is staying put while Sam Deering joins from Oxford following his Young Player of the Season Award whilst on loan at Underhill last year. The 3/1 Bees look progressive enough as do 8/1 Burton who also fit the profile. Worryingly for Paul Peschisolido his side were without a win at a top half side for the whole of last season however it was a strange campaign for The Brewers as a prolonged FA Cup run and weather affected fixtures meant Albion were forced to play 19 games in the final 2 months of the season. They won when they had to but could be worth keeping an eye on over the first few months of 2011/12. Of more interest is the 16/1 on offer for Bradford.

Peter Jackson has been confirmed as manager after a caretaker spell following Peter Taylor’s departure in February. Jackson guided Bradford to safety collecting 18 points from 15 games. Three wins in his first 4 games settled the nerves around Valley Parade however the last 2 months yielded just 9 points, losing heavily at Southend, Accrington and at home to Torquay. The final day 5-1 reverse at home to Crewe will have given the manager plenty of clues as to what strengthening he has to do over the Summer but despite talks of new signings money at the wrong end of League Two is hard to come by and they won’t be the first big club to find themselves at risk of falling through the trapdoor of League football. Since relegation from League One in 06/07, The Bantams have finished 10th, 9th, 14th and 18th and last season’s tally of 16 away goals was the worst in the division. This column was happy to oppose them for promotion last season and despite being only slightly longer in the ‘Winners Market’ (20/1) this time round it’s the 16/1 for relegation that appeals the most.

Harris homecoming to inspire promotion charge?

horsfallg — Thu, 23 Jun 2011 14:52:51 +0000

The financial picture in League Two looks certain to have a top heavy feel about it as newly promoted Crawley aim to make it just a fleeting visit on their way to the Premier League, however they’re not the only club making additions and one that takes the eye is Southend Utd.

Paul Sturrock’s men were slow to get going last term following relegation from League One, dropping down a league coincided with a transfer embargo this time last year and the recently appointed Sturrock started the season on the back foot. The Shrimpers form picked up around the turn of the year, picking up 24 points in 13 games between the start of the year and the end of February. United remain unbeaten at home since the start of February and despite only 1 win away at the top ten they only conceded more than one goal on their travels on just 8 occasions. Barry Corr led the line after joining on a free from Exeter with 21 goals in 47 appearances, an admirable return, however only 5 of those goals came against sides in the top ten. Promotion winning campaigns at this level are almost always built around strikers playing at a level beneath their capabilities, Craig Davies did it with Chesterfield last season and Lee Hughes with Notts County the season before. Good news then that Sturrock has added Neil Harris on a 3-year deal after Millwall’s all-time leading scorer found opportunities at The New Den limited. Harris is a lifelong Shrimpers fan and scored 18 in Millwall’s promotion from League One as short a time ago as 2009/10.

Harris won’t be the only addition this summer. Sturrock is already talking up moves for an unnamed winger and striker while talks are also continuing with Crystal Palace over the loan switch of midfielder Alassane N’Diaye. Captain Craig Easton is on his way out looking for League One football but the Essex outfit look well placed to improve on last year’s 13th placed finish (7pts off 6th) and look the pick of the outsiders in the division at 28/1 (Bet365). Relegated teams to League Two have a decent record in their second season with Bournemouth, Brentford and MK Dons all gaining promotion at the second attempt in the last 5 years.

Holdsworth Calling The Shots in League Two?

horsfallg — Sat, 18 Jun 2011 12:38:47 +0000

Early days of course in assessing the state of play in League Two but while I’m gathering my resources ahead of an assault on the ante post market it’s worth just noting down some thoughts as we go.

The market will be made by newly promoted Crawley who are as short as 3/1 in places, their points haul of 105 in winning last season Conference was the highest for a decade and beat Aldershot’s tally of 101 back in 07/08. Money will be spent and the time for backing them has long since gone although it’s worth noting that only Stevenage (10/11) and Yeovil (03/04) have finished in the top 10 following a Conference Championship in the last 10 years. Points totals suggest that last season’s Conference was as competitive as previous so no reason to suggest that Crawley won’t make a good fist of things next year.

The fate of teams coming down the ladder has changed markedly in the last 5 years. The four teams relegated from League One in 05/06 filled the top 4 places in League Two the following season but since then 15 teams have dropped to the fourth tier (Gillingham twice) with only 2 of them gaining promotion the following year (Wycombe 10/11, Gillingham 07/08), in fact of those 16 teams relegated, 4 are currently in League One, 2 have dropped to non-league while 10 are still plying their trade in League Two. Gillingham look a team to keep an eye this summer, The Gills will be without Adebayo Akinfenwa and Cody MacDonald who contributed 36 of their 67 goals last term, not replacing those two should affect a promotion run and they could be one to oppose in the season match bets.

A team that catch the eye at this stage are Aldershot. Kevin Dillon lost his job in early January after 5 consecutive defeats left The Shots in 20th following a great campaign in 2009/10 which saw them reach the playoffs. Dean Holdsworth came in following Dillon’s departure and oversaw a run of W8, D12 and L4 in the remaining 24 games, losing just twice to teams in the top 7. That playoff run was based around their solid home form and their poor start at home this season (W2, D3, L5) was enough for Dillon’s demise, but since then Holdsworth has taken it back to something like the formidable record they had in 09/10 (Aldershot had lost only 8 home games in the 2 seasons since they got promoted from the Conference). Aldershot’s home record since Holdsworth arrived reads W6, D5 and L2. Also catching the eye was their away form, losing just 6 on the road, only the 3 automatically promoted teams (Chesterfield, Bury and Wycombe) ended up losing less away from home.

Everything depends on activity during the summer but Holdsworth looks well placed to use resources built up over his long career whilst finances at the club look secure enough. Early days as we said but 33/1 (Bet365) for top honours and 7/1 (Coral) to get promoted looks attractive.

League One Playoffs: Too Posh too push?

horsfallg — Mon, 09 May 2011 19:55:34 +0000

A brief look at the League One playoff picture then where favourites Huddersfield seem to have been handed an excellent chance to reverse the trend of losing favourites at this stage of the season. The Terriers head into Saturday’s first leg at Bournemouth unbeaten in their last 25 despite playing 3 of the top 5 in their last 6 fixtures. They remain the only team in the playoffs to have registered an away victory at a fellow playoff team, a 3-1 win at MK Dons at the end of April while 3^rd placed teams in League One have a decent record as well with 3 of the last 4 winners all finishing just outside automatic promotion.

	Pl	W	D	L	F	A	Pts
Bournemouth (6^th)	6	2	3	1	14	11	9
Huddersfield (3^rd)	6	2	3	1	13	10	9
Peterborough (4^th)	6	2	2	2	11	13	8
MK Dons (5^th)	6	2	0	4	8	12	6

Bournemouth sit joint top of the head to head league with Huddersfield and will look to continue a run of 1 defeat in 5 which cemented their place in the post season. They have a great chance to strike early when Lee Clark’s men visit on Saturday, The Cherries have beaten Brighton, Peterborough and MK Dons at Dean Court this season while only an 89^th minute equaliser from Danny Cadamateri rescued a point on Huddersfield’s last visit in February.

*Playoff Winners*	*Finished*
Millwall	3^rd
Scunthorpe	6^th
Doncaster	3^rd
Blackpool	3^rd
Barnsley	5^th
Sheff Weds	5^th

MK Dons entertain Peterborough in the other semi-final at Stadium MK where they have beaten 4 of the top 6 to nil including shutting out Posh back in March. Sunday’s fixture provides a great opportunity for Karl Robinson’s men to influence the tie. Despite home dominance, Peterborough remain without an away victory at a top ten side all season while top scorers Craig MacKail Smith and Geroge Boyd have scored just 12 goals from their combined 49 away from London Road. Posh come into the tie with just 3 wins in their last 10, all of which came against relegated sides while their last victory against a top ten side came against Exeter back in early March. MK Dons have scored in 18 of their 23 away fixtures this season and will look to add to the 40 goals conceded at home by Peterborough this season, the highest in the league.

Best Prices

Huddersfield 13/8

Peterborough 5/2

MK Dons 7/2

Bournemouth 4/1

League Two Playoffs: Stanley March to the Arch?

horsfallg — Sun, 08 May 2011 13:22:47 +0000

A brief overview of stats looking at the League Two playoff picture.

Torquay sit top of the head to head league table due mainly to a 5-0 win at home to Shrewsbury back in March, a result which adds some spice when The Shrews visit Plainmoor in Saturday’s first leg. Stevenage look the weakest team of the 4, failing to register a single victory in the regular season against any of the other sides although both Dagenham and Gillingham have been promoted in recent seasons with similarly poor records against the other 3 teams in their respective playoff campaigns.

	Pl	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
Torquay (7^th)	6	2	3	1	8	2	+6	9
Accrington (5^th)	6	2	3	1	5	5	0	9
Shrewsbury (4^th)	6	2	3	1	6	8	-2	9
Stevenage (6^th)	6	0	3	3	3	7	-4	3

Form coming into the playoffs will always be factored into prices and one point to note could be that 4 of the last 5 teams promoted via the playoffs have picked up more than 10 points in the 5 games leading up to the playoffs. Only Shrewsbury fit that profile this time around (13 points) although they have played 3 of the bottom 8 in that period. Stanley are next best with 9 points and go into Sunday’s game at Stevenage unbeaten in 10, that run has seen them play just one team in the top 10 though.

Playoff Winners	Finished	Points 5 games previous
Dagenham	7^th	12
Gillingham	5^th	10
Stockport	4^th	7
Bristol Rovers	6^th	11
Cheltenham	5^th	10

Stevenage look instantly opposable registering just one win (Wycombe) against sides in the top 8 and scoring just 3 away goals against sides in the top 10. That statistic puts extra pressure on Sunday’s first leg at Broadhall Way where despite only being beaten 3 times, 7 of their 9 home
wins have come against teams in the bottom eight. Only bottom club Stockport have drawn more home games (12) than Stevenage this season.

Torquay come into the post season without a win in 5 yet look to have had the toughest run in. Three consecutive 0-0 draws at home against promoted Chesterfield, Wycombe and playoff rivals Port Vale came in pressure situations so we shouldn’t be surprised if The Gulls look to keep it tight on Saturday and take a fighting chance to Shrewsbury in the second leg. Torquay have beaten both Bury and Wycombe away from home this year.

Torquay and Shrewsbury look to be contesting the most competitive semi-final as The Shrews look to secure a 3^rd playoff final in recent times (losing the previous two). Stanley could await the winners.

Best Prices

Shrewsbury 12/5

Accrington 11/4

Stevenage 3/1

Torquay 7/2

The Saturday Bet (New Years Day)

horsfallg — Fri, 31 Dec 2010 11:27:47 +0000

Don’t say it too loud but we had a winner last week, Hereford failed to hang on to a point at Wycombe but the damage had been done already when they equalised with 15 minutes to go. With some teams coming back from a 2 week layoff I have changed tack slightly this week, spurred on by last week’s winner, and have focussed on goal scoring records for home and away teams in League Two (an extensive Excel chart was involved). The highlights of that research are explained below but initial thoughts suggest that there could be profit in it, especially with the range of goal markets now available on the high street. I will let you know by Saturday if my chart has made its way into the bin.

Lincoln Vs Bradford

League Two is always the place to go for goals with bookmakers falling over themselves to lay low scoring affairs although Coral might just have had made a mistake in sticking their head above the water when Bradford travel to Sincil Bank this weekend. The hosts have failed to score 6 times in 10 home fixtures (highest at home in the league) while their visitors have failed to score on their travels 6 times in 10 games (highest away in the league). If you extend those records to instances where both teams have scored 1 or less then Lincoln have managed that feat 8/10 at home while Bradford reads 9/10 away from home. Under 2.5 looks nailed on here at 8/11 but with average 0-0 prices in the division quoted around 7/1 -8/1 it might be worth availing Coral of the 10/1 for 0-0 here (best price 9/1 for No Goalscorer).

Morecambe Vs Accrington

Morecambe host Stanley this weekend in a crunch fixture which should see the winners breathe a little easier going into the 2011. Despite Morecambe’s position their 11 home fixtures have seen them fail to score only twice, the key issue here though is that on 7 of those occasions they have scored only once. Once could be enough though this Saturday as visitors Stanley have failed to score 6 times away (joint highest) and have scored 1 or less a massive 9 times in 11 games. The importance of the game should lead to a cagey affair anyway so it’s hard to look past under 2.5 goals (4/6) with a small investment at 1-0 Morecambe (7/1, Stan James) potentially profitable.

Chesterfield Vs Stockport

Nothing unusual about Chesterfield home record here, despite 2 defeats they haven’t failed to score in 11 home ties whilst they have scored 2 or more on 9 occasions, the visit of lowly Stockport shouldn’t alter those statistics too much. County have chalked up 4 away wins this year though and have failed to find the net in only 3 away fixtures, those games were at Lincoln, Morecambe and Northampton which just might suggest that they play with a bit more freedom against better teams in the division, highlighted by their 1-0 win at Bury in November. The relative league positions suggests there will be plenty of takers for Chesterfield to win to nil but with Stockport’s generous away record they could sneak one on their travels for 9^th time this season. Both Teams to score is 11/10 with Corals.

Recommendations

Lincoln/Bradford Under 2.5 (8/11)

Morecambe/Accrington Under 2.5 (4/6)

Chesterfield/Stockport Both teams to score (11/10)

1pt Treble pays 5/1 (Coral)

0.25pt Lincoln Vs Bradford 0-0 Correct Score (10/1, Coral)

0.25pt Morecambe Vs Accrington 1-0 Correct Score (13/2, Hills)

0.1pt Double (70/1, Coral)

Have a prosperous New Year.

The Boxing Day Bet

horsfallg — Fri, 24 Dec 2010 14:29:29 +0000

There are fewer better days in the sporting calendar than Boxing Day, true enough the quality of football on offer doesn’t differ from the normal fayre served up most weekends yet for most of us it will have been at least 48 hours since a decent betting opportunity came along. Fixtures are once again subject to the weather but prospects look slightly better than this time last week. Always a key time of year, promotion aspirations and relegation worries are either vanquished or enforced and with 2 weeks to sit and think about it most teams should be raring to go come Boxing Day.

Wycombe Vs Hereford

Wycombe look much too short here (4/7), The Chairboys are carrying the antepost money for me this season (12/1) yet have been inconsistent since relegation from League One. Similar inconsistences from last season have yet to be adressed, only 4 teams in the entire Football League conceded more at home last year while this year the opposition has scored 2 or more in 6 of their 10 home fixtures. A home tie against the bottom team is a plum Boxing Day draw for Gary Waddock’s men but they may not have it all their own way against a Hereford side with a pretty decent away record amongst teams in the bottom half. Winless at home yet 3 wins on the road (Northampton, Crewe and Stockport) account for The Bulls being where they are but Jamie Pitman’s men were, by all accounts, the better side in the 1-0 loss to Bradford last time out, a lack of quality being blamed for not taking a whole host of chances. An inconsistent Wycombe could offer up plenty more opportunities for Hereford and while both teams are in for varying seasons at opposite ends of the table we might just get a decent run for our money at 6/1 (VC) for an away win.

I will be laying Wycombe at around 1.58 but if you’re a backer then considering Wycombe’s home record ‘both teams to score’ (Evs, Skybet) makes sense. You can back the Hereford/Draw Double Chance at 6/4 with Paddy Power.

Wycombe Vs Hereford Both Teams to Score (Evs, Skybet)

Shrewsbury Vs Bury

Should be a decent game this one, just the 1 point seperates Shrewsbury in 5th from Bury in 3rd yet a quick look at last weeks blog and it will come as no surprise that I’m yet to be convinced The Shrews are the real deal. They remain the only unbeaten side at home in the division amassing 22 points along the way yet 17 of those points have come against sides in the bottom half. Their record against sides in the current top 8 reads 1-3-2 and in Bury they come up against a side with the best away record in the Football League. Seven wins on their travels whilst amassing 24 goals justifys an intersest at 2/1 (Betfred). This is a key part of the season for Shakers fans, a run of 2 wins in 15 games put pay to promotion aspirations last season, they play Torquay and Macclesfield at home following this fixture so will be keen to avoid defeat here. Bury have lost just once in their last six visits to Shrewsbury so having the draw on our side appears sensible.

Bury to beat Shrewsbury (Draw No Bet) 6/5, Hills

Have a great Christmas everyone, I will be at the Ricoh on Tuesday for the visit of QPR hoping we ruin Neil Warnock’s.

The Saturday Bet

horsfallg — Fri, 17 Dec 2010 21:05:48 +0000

More than a distinct possibility that the League Two fixture list will be decimated this weekend, bad news for punters and bad news for fans of clubs affected by the freeze who are currently thinking up other excuses for getting out of the Christmas shopping.

The prospect of providing 800 words on why Shrewsbury might not beat Oxford and then seeing the game called off isn’t really worth my time or yours so I’ll keep it brief (hoorah I hear you say).

Oxford Vs Shrewsbury

What I like to do when looking at prospective bets for the weekend is identify teams that may have reached a ceiling in their form and Shrewsbury could be one of those teams. Unbeaten in 6 League games since late October (Chesterfield 4-3) The Shrews have had a decent run of home fixtures as well as facing 3 of the bottom 5. Just 2 away fixtures in that unbeaten run, a draw at Stevenage and a 90th minute winner at Crewe. During that same period Oxford endured a 5 match losing streak before arresting that run in style with an away win at leaders Chesterfield and while they don’t make much appeal the newly promoted U’s can claim Northampton, Morecambe and Port Vale as notable scalps at the Kassam Stadium this season.

Shrewsbury have notched up 3 draws in the last 4 fixtures and this could go the same way 11/5 (Hills)

Gillingham Vs Chesterfield

I will continue to underestimate Chesterfield right until the day they celebrate promotion to League One and it’s no different this week. Just the one defeat away from home (Rotherham) but only one win against teams in the top half. The Spireites have only failed to score twice away from the b2net Stadium but interestingly only 1 of the 9 goals came in the first half, the fact that they have lost just one of those fixtures suggests that if you haven’t put them away by half time they might come back to haunt you. Gillingham are yet to play any of the current top 4 at home yet are on a 3 match winning run and should be competitive.

Couple of options here, Chesterfield D-A (13/2, Unibet) makes sense and could benefit anyone wanting to risk a little less on the away win. I’m more inclined to back the draw though, Chesterfield are the better side (there I said it) and should dictate the outcome, 4 draws from 8 away fixtures suggests they might be happy going into the Christmas period with a point (12/5, Totesport).

Have a happy weekend betting, I’ll be at The Ricoh on Saturday for the next step on our inevitable charge towards automatic promotion. Plenty of 66/1 still available for a Coventry Championship win for anyone who likes giving money away at this time of year.

The Saturday Bet (-9.3pt)

horsfallg — Fri, 26 Nov 2010 22:04:12 +0000

Small inroads made into the cummulative losses after Hereford and Lincoln played out a high scoring game last weekend, it would have been nice to continue full steam ahead with a decent set of League Two fixtures, as it happens though the FA Cup has put pay to that so it’s off to the Championship for a top of the table clash.

QPR Vs Cardiff

On paper there might not be a better showcase for Championship football than QPR Cardiff at Loftus Road on Saturday as the best home side in the divsion meet the best away side, history suggests that this might be one for the purists though. Managers, owners and players all change over the years yet the trend of ‘under’ continues. Eleven of the last 12 meetings between the 2 clubs have seen under 2.5 goals scored (4/5, Bet365) and with Rangers only conceding 3 at home all season it’s hard to see a goalfest.

QPR have the chance to go 5 points clear should they win on Saturday although fans will be mindful of the misplaced optimism they had this time last year. By early November The R’s had continued a decent start to their campaign and reached a high of 4th place. Just 2 wins from mid-November until early February though cost Jim Magilton and Paul Hart their jobs and resulted QPR finishing no better than mid-table. While Warnocks side show no signs of arresting this season’s decent start it’s worth bearing in mind, particularly as their home record this season has been attained without facing any of the top 6 at Loftus Road.

Cardiff on the other hand, depite losing at both The Walkers and Portman Road this season have beaten both Derby and Leeds (4th, 5th) away from home. The Bluebirds head to the capital with a pretty decent record as well, 2 wins from the last 3 visits to Loftus Road as well as wins at Palace, Watford and QPR during last seasons failed promotion bid, a season where only promoted WBA and Newcastle had better away records.

As you can tell then I’m siding with the away side, this is a big game and Cardiff have plenty more big game experience over the past few seasons. Despite sitting 2 points clear and having the only unbeaten record in English football, QPR have beaten only 1 side in the top 10 (Doncaster). This represents by far the biggest test for Warnock’s men so the 13/5 (VC) makes more than enough sense to get involved. Interestingly enough in the last 12 meetings between the 2 only once have both teams scored so some small inerest in a win to nil is recommended.

Recommendations

1pt Cardiff to beat QPR (13/5, VC)

0.5pt Cardiff to win to nil (5/1, Bet365)

The Saturday Bet (-10.5pt)

horsfallg — Sat, 20 Nov 2010 12:08:18 +0000

Well it’s a long way back from here, the road to level profits begins in earnest though with perhaps an opportunity for two teams in League 2 to buck a trend.

Lincoln Vs Hereford

Two wins on the bounce for Lincoln saw them move away from the bottom two in the football league but a win for Hereford would see The Bulls overtake The Imps. Lincoln needed 2 set pieces to dispose of hopeless Morecambe last week and a 90th minute winner at home to non league Nuneaton the week before. In fact if you ignore penalties then The Imps have failed to score in 6 of their 8 home games this season. Hereford look like they have a lot more goals in them. Jamie Pitman’s men are currently 7 unbeaten and have notched up 19 goals in those 7 (including 5 at home to Hythe in the FA Cup) and there’s no doubt that they head into this relegation battle in better form than their hosts. Hereford have beaten Northampton and Stockport away from Edgar Street in recent weeks (scoring 9 in the process) so it’s hard to ignore the 12/5 (VC) for them to sneak all 3 points today.

There could be some more value in the goals markets though. Lincoln are the leagues lowest scorers while despite Hereford’s recent glut of goals they still only average just over a goal a game. Previous meetings between the 2 have seen goals though. Five of the last six meetings home and away have seen more than 2.5 goals and with 3 points, and a place outside the bottom 2 there for the taking it could encourage both teams to push forward, a point each doesn’t really suit anyone here.

Recommendations

1pt Hereford to beat Lincoln (12/5, VC)

2pts Hereford Vs Lincoln Over 2.5 goals (11/10, SkyBet)